So I'm walking down the street and a little kid asks me if I have a quarter. When I say yes he asks if I want to make a bet. I ask why and he responds that if its heads, he gets the quarter, if not I get to keep it. Reminiscing of "Rozencrantz and Gildenstern, I accept, after all whats a quarter?
He flips the coin and it comes up heads, He wins and asks me if I want to go double or nothing. Sure. Heads. Again? Hell ya, I gotta win my money back. Heads. wtf. Heads. OK now you're cheating. Tails. That's right. Heads. I hate you, kid. Tails. Suck it. Heads. Listen kid. Tails. nvm. Heads. THE EASTER BUNNY ISNT REAL!!!!!!!
At the end of 20 coin flips Ive managed to keep 75 cents and he is sitting pretty with $9.25 and has a irrationally annoying look of smugness about him. I tell him he's a cheater. He says prove it. I can't. Or can I?
I think back to my grad school stats and do a quick calculation. 20 coin flips at 1 degree of freedom should leave a .05 significance critical value of 3.84. If I win 3 and lose 17 then that's an observed of 3 minus an expected of 10 to come to -7 square that and get 49. If I divide that by an expected of 10 I get a chi squared value of 4.9. This little prick IS a cheater!
Long story short its Illegal to Punch an 11 year old kid for taking your money, even if his pants ARE on fire.
So why is this important? Because academia is the practice of telling the rest of society that their pants are on fire. Statistical significance is the point at which we have decided we are justified in punching a metaphorical 11 year old in the nuts and taking back our hard earned latte money.
~Allie Enasian
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